The Canadian economy lost 43,000 jobs in June, marking the first decline in employment since January.
At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to another record low of 4.9 per cent, according to Statistics Canada’s latest labor force survey Friday.
The May unemployment rate was 5.1 per cent, the lowest since at least 1976 which is as far back as comparable data goes.
“The job market still looks very strong after looking through some of the monthly noise,” said Bank of Montreal senior economist Robert Kavcic in an email.
Looking ahead, Kavcic said BMO is expecting a “meaningful slowdown in the economy later this year.”
The Bank of Canada is expected to raise its key interest rate on Wednesday, with most economists predicting a hike of three-quarters of a percentage point.
A recent study from the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives warned rapidly increasing interest rates will likely send the Canadian economy into a recession and could cause significant “collateral damage,” including 850,000 job losses.
For now, though, CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld said the Bank of Canada wouldn’t be dissuaded from raising interest rates more aggressively, noting an increase of 1.3 per cent in hours worked and the decline in jobs being offset by lower labor force participation.
“On its own, the headline jobs decline isn’t yet convincing evidence of a slowdown that will determine the Bank of Canada from a 75 basis point hike next week,” Shenfeld said in an email.
June’s decline in the unemployment rate is attributed to fewer people looking for work, Statistics Canada said, while the loss in jobs was driven by a decline in self-employment by 59,000 jobs.
For business owners, a decline in the labor force participation rate only adds to their labor shortage woes.
Mark Kitching, owner of Waldo’s on King bistro and wine bar in London, Ont., says hiring challenges are ongoing. He says he could hire two or three additional kitchen staff but isn’t getting applicants.
“I talked to people in my industry and we’re all having the same problem,” said Kitching.
The vacancies at Waldo’s mean staff have to work overtime hours, which Kitching says makes it more expensive and stressful to operate.
June also saw a faster pace of wage growth, with average hourly wages rising 5.2 per hundred year over year to $31.24.
Kavcic said previous wage growth numbers were lagging and didn’t capture “reality on the ground.”
“These numbers are now better reflecting conditions in the real economy,” he said.
In comparison to wage growth prior to the pandemic, June recorded the fastest growth since the collection of comparable data in 1998. However, the rise in wages in June was still below the most recent inflation rate of 7.7 per cent reported in May.
Wage growth was led by gains among non-unionized workers, who saw their wages go up by 6.1 per cent, while unionized workers experienced a slower rise in wages of 3.7 per cent.
Employment in the public and private sectors held steady.
Jobs in the services-producing sector declined by 76,000, erasing gains made earlier in the year. The largest decline in employment was in retail trade. The report said data over the next few months may help answer whether the decline was due to consumer behaviors changing as inflation remains high.
Employment in the good-producing sector rebounded, with 33,000 jobs added.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 8, 2022.